In 2018, the Japanese government reported that one worker has since died from lung cancer as a result of exposure from the event. In the case of Fukushima, although 40 to 50 people experienced physical injury or radiation burns at the nuclear facility, the number of direct deaths from the incident are quoted to be zero. In its 2008 report, the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) refrained from quoting a figure for the absolute number of deaths within populations exposed to low radiation doses from Chernobyl because of uncertainty in the limit no-threshold model and “unacceptable uncertainties in the predictions”. The challenge of cancer risk attribution- especially at low doses of exposure in further geographic regions- makes this process of estimation particularly difficult. Radiation scientists Fairlie and Sumner provide some of highest estimates, predicting between 30,000-60,000 deaths. (2006) estimates a total of 16,000 deaths across Europe. A study in the International Journal of Cancer by Cardis et al. Other studies have suggested higher figures. However, this figure is related only to the proximate populations of Ukraine, Russia and Belarus which were exposed to high radiation levels if extended to estimates of those exposed to low-level radiation across the region, this number rises to 9000. In its 2005/06 assessment ‘Chernobyl’s Legacy: Health, Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts’ the World Health Organisation (WHO) estimated that the total number of long-term deaths will be around 4,000. The chart here reflects a range of published estimates on the number of deaths resultant from the Chernobyl disaster. As such, we may expect that the numbers quoted below to be interpreted as the upper limit of a given source’s estimate. However, the LNT method remains strongly contested, and is assumed to provide a conservative estimate of potential mortality. In the published estimates shown, studies have utilised a methodology termed the ‘linear no-threshold model’ (LNT) this model is typically applied in assessments of radiation risk and in setting regulatory limits for environmental protection. Part of this difficulty lies in the methodology used to estimate long-term deaths from low-level radiation exposure. The number of people who were impacted over long-term radiation exposure is more difficult to discern and remains highly contested. 31 people died as a direct result of the Chernobyl accident two died from blast effects and a further 29 firemen died as a result of acute radiation exposure (where acute refers to infrequent exposure over a short period of time) in the days which followed.
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